Puzzle Cottage
Letter frequency in Wordle answers
Across the 2,315 curated Wordle answers (Josh Wardle’s original list, before NYT’s ~30-word removals), letter frequency is:
The top 8 letters (E, A, R, O, T, L, I, S) account for ~85% of all letter occurrences across the 5-letter answer slots. This is why optimal openers test those letters: SALET = S, A, L, E, T (5 of the top 8); CRANE = C, R, A, N, E (4 of the top 8 + N).
Letter frequency by position
Some letters are more likely in specific positions. Top letters per position in the answer list:
| Position | Top 5 letters | Combined frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | S, C, B, T, P | ~46% |
| 2 | A, O, R, E, I | ~58% |
| 3 | A, I, O, E, U | ~52% |
| 4 | E, N, S, A, L | ~52% |
| 5 | E, Y, T, R, L | ~62% |
Notable observations:
- S is the dominant position-1 letter (~16%). This is why SALET’s S in position 1 is high-value.
- Vowels dominate position 2 and 3. Almost every Wordle answer has a vowel in one of those positions.
- Position 5 is heavily E and Y. Plurals (-S) are unusually rare in Wordle answers (the curated list deliberately avoids most -S words). E and Y end common 5-letter words like LARGE, MERRY, TRULY.
Optimal openers ranked by entropy
The information-theoretic optimal opening word is the one that maximizes expected entropy of the response distribution — effectively, the word that narrows the answer space most on average.
| Word | Avg. guesses to solve | Bits of info | Solve-in-3 rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| SALET | 3.42 | 5.89 | ~28% |
| REAST | 3.43 | 5.88 | ~28% |
| CRATE | 3.44 | 5.87 | ~27% |
| TRACE | 3.44 | 5.87 | ~27% |
| SLATE | 3.44 | 5.86 | ~27% |
| CRANE | 3.46 | 5.85 | ~27% |
| CARTE | 3.47 | 5.83 | ~27% |
| ROAST | 3.51 | 5.79 | ~25% |
| ADIEU | 3.62 | 5.81 | ~21% |
| STORE | 3.63 | 5.74 | ~22% |
| AUDIO | 3.71 | 5.65 | ~18% |
The top 7 openers are within 0.05 bits of each other (essentially tied in real-world play). ADIEU and AUDIO — the popular vowel-heavy choices — sacrifice 0.04–0.24 bits compared to optimal, costing about 0.2 expected guesses on average.
Expected guess distribution with optimal play
Using SALET + optimal subsequent play against the curated 2,315-answer list:
| Guesses | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.04% (1 in 2,315 if SALET happens to be the answer) |
| 2 | 1.7% |
| 3 | ~28% |
| 4 | ~50% |
| 5 | ~16% |
| 6 | ~3% |
| Failure (>6) | ~0.5% |
Real human players don’t play optimally and have higher rates of 5-guess and 6-guess solves, plus 2–5% failure rates depending on the player population.
Real-player Wordle stats (NYT-reported)
NYT periodically publishes aggregate stats on Wordle’s player base. Approximate ranges across multiple data dumps:
- Average guess count: 3.7–4.0 (varies by puzzle difficulty, day-of-week, region).
- Solve rate: 95–98% of players who attempt a daily complete it.
- Solve-in-3: ~20% of solvers.
- Solve-in-4: ~40–45% (the modal outcome).
- Solve-in-2: ~3% (mostly luck — SALET happening to be close to the answer).
- Solve-in-1: 0.04% in expectation; observed rates higher due to social-network effects (people sharing the answer ahead of midnight UTC).
Common letter pairs (digrams) in Wordle answers
| Pair | Frequency in answers | Common positions |
|---|---|---|
| ER | 12% | positions 4-5 |
| OR | 10% | 2-3 or 4-5 |
| AR | 9% | 2-3 or 4-5 |
| IN | 9% | 2-3 |
| EN | 8% | 4-5 |
| AN | 8% | 2-3 or 4-5 |
| ST | 7% | 1-2 (start) or 4-5 (end) |
| RE | 7% | 1-2 (start) |
| ON | 6% | 2-3 or 4-5 |
| AL | 6% | 2-3 |
Wordle answer rarities and surprises
- Plurals are rare. Less than 5% of answers end in S. Wardle deliberately avoided -S plurals to keep puzzles interesting.
- Past-tense -ED is rare. Same logic. Maybe 3% of answers end in ED.
- Doubled letters are common. ~30% of answers have at least one repeated letter. Common: SH, SS, OO, EE, LL.
- Q always pairs with U. All 31 Q-containing answers in the original list have QU.
- Some letters never appear in some positions. No answer starts with X (the J cell on position 1 is similarly empty). Q in position 5 is rare.
The 2,315-word answer list
The original Wordle answer list, curated by Josh Wardle, contains 2,315 words. At one puzzle per day, this gives the puzzle approximately 6.3 years of unique answers before repetition. The list rotates in a fixed sequence; given a date, you can compute the expected answer (this is why “Wordle bots” that auto-spoil exist).
NYT removed about 30 words after acquisition (offensive terms, UK-specific spellings). NYT has been adding new answers as the list approaches exhaustion. The current list is somewhat longer than the original 2,315.
Statistical curiosities
- The hardest historical Wordle by average guess count was “PARER” (NYT #1,250-ish) — surprised players because it’s an uncommon word. Average solve was ~5.1.
- The easiest have been short, common, low-letter-variety words like “HAPPY” (~3.3 average).
- Streak distribution: Most players who maintain a streak past day 30 maintain it indefinitely — the dropoff is steep around days 7–14, then flattens.
- The fastest theoretically-correct solve is 1 guess (SALET happens to be the answer). Won’t happen in practice because SALET isn’t in the curated answer list.
Practical implications for play
- Use SALET, CRANE, or SLATE. Any of them. Stop overthinking.
- If your opener has 0 greens/yellows, use a high-info second word. CHIRP after SALET, SHOUT after CRANE.
- Don’t waste guess 2 testing a single candidate. If you have 1–2 yellows from guess 1, you usually have 5–15 candidate answers. A second info-maximizing word narrows further before you commit.
- Position 5 is often E or Y. If your green tile is in position 5 and it’s neither, the answer set is unusually narrow.
- Watch for double letters on Hard guesses. ~30% of answers have repeats. If you’re stuck after 4 guesses, consider whether a doubled letter is the issue.